Canary SFS — Seismic Forecasting System

📍 Geo-Forecast Location

Locating via IP…

Geo-Seismic
Energy Index

EXTREME

↑ +183% seismic activity vs yesterday

CANARY SFS

Seismic Forecasting System

Advanced geophysical signal detection for earthquake and volcanic hazard forecasting. Multi-channel directional analysis delivering fault-segment precision for reinsurance, government and critical infrastructure clients.

GEO-WEATHER FORECASTING · WHY SETTLE FOR LESS

VIEW ARC MONITOR VIEW ARC HAZARD → ENTERPRISE LICENSING →

QUIET

Blue · AmpZ
< 1.0

ACTIVE

Green · AmpZ
1.0 — 1.5

ELEVATED

Orange · AmpZ
1.5 — 2.5

DOMINANT

Red · AmpZ
> 2.5

🌐 Geo-Forecast

⛈ STORMY & DOMINANT

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Rain

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Shakey

Temperature

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FAHRENHEIT

📡 Detecting nearest zone…

REFERENCE 160 / SEISMIC RELEASE VALIDATION

Daily Energy Index plotted against summed seismic energy proxy for all M4.0+ earthquakes. Use the lag controls to test whether release clusters before, on, or after the forecast day. Y-axis uses log10(sum(10^(1.5M))) so large release days remain readable.

Loading forecast / earthquake validation series…

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Daily samples Regression line Mean EI / release guides

CURRENT FIT

CORRELATION (r)

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R²

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SLOPE

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SAMPLES

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P VALUE

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95% CI

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Testing whether higher Reference 160 forecast energy days align with stronger global M4.0+ release, using live overlap as data arrive.

EI / BPR INFLATION CORRELATION — AXIAL SEAMOUNT

Daily Energy Index correlated with RSN-NANO-BPR seafloor displacement at Axial Seamount (MJ03F). Each high-EI day produces a measurable inflation pulse with a predictable lag. The BPR is the magmatic elevator readout — this table tracks whether the Canary SFS index predicts seafloor deformation before the instrument records it. n=8 · March 19–26, 2026 · OOI/NSF Cabled Array

        EI 80–90 (RED)
        EI 60–80 (ORANGE)
        EI 40–60 (GREEN)
        EI <40 (BLUE/NORM)
        Apr 10–11 FORECAST
        Regression line
      

CORRELATION (r)

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EQUATION

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EI → DISPLACEMENT

EI 80–90 → ~5–6 mm uplift

EI 60–80 → ~3 mm uplift

EI 40–60 → ~2–3 mm uplift

EI < 40 → Normalization

n=7 confirmed · Apr 10–11 pending

LAG RELATIONSHIP

EI 80–90 → ~18–20 hr lag

EI 60–80 → ~14–16 hr lag

EI 40–60 → ~12–14 hr lag

Higher EI → fuller wave → longer rectification lag

APR 10–11 FORWARD PREDICTION

Forecast EI: RED-BAND (80+)

Predicted displacement: 5–7 mm

Predicted lag: ~18–20 hrs

Predicted BPR peak: Apr 11 ~18–22 UTC

Discharge (eruption): Apr 12–13

BPR data: OOI/NSF Cabled Array · University of Washington · RSN-NANO-BPR MJ03F · updated every 20 min | EI: Canary SFS proprietary index (SPIN Dynamics) | Displacement values read from PMEL plot — pending M2M API pull for precise mm values

EI / GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE COUNT CORRELATION v124

Daily Geo-Seismic Energy Index correlated with global earthquake count (all magnitudes, current UTC day) · USGS FDSN feed · Absolute daily count resets at midnight UTC — High-EI days show measurably elevated seismic frequency; low-EI days show suppressed activity — identifying both risk windows and quiet windows for exposure modeling. n=14 · Mar 15–28, 2026

Loading live earthquake count...

        EI 80–90 (RED)
        EI 60–80 (ORANGE)
        EI 40–60 (GREEN)
        EI <40 (BLUE/NORM)
        Regression line
      

CORRELATION (r)

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R²

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SLOPE

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SAMPLES

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P VALUE

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HIGH vs LOW EI

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EI → EQ COUNT

EI 80–90 → ~320–360 events

EI 60–80 → ~270–300 events

EI 40–60 → ~240–270 events

EI < 40 → ~220–240 events

n=13 · Mar 15–27, 2026

REINSURANCE VALUE

QUIET WINDOW (EI <40)

Suppressed seismic frequency — lower expected loss period. Optimal window for writing new Pacific Rim exposure.

RISK WINDOW (EI 80+)

Elevated count + magnitude. Tighten terms, increase retentions, monitor catastrophe accumulations.

TODAY · MAR 28

EI 35 — NORMALIZATION

Observed count: ~245

High-EI baseline: ~330

Delta: −85 events (−26%)

EI 88 arrives tomorrow UTC · Regression predicts ~316 earthquakes