SPIN
DYNAMICS
SPIN-2026-02-11c · Day 8
72-Hour Seismic Forecast
JAPAN/KURIL — FINAL DAY THEN 2-WEEK REST — 63% zone share today is the last major forcing day. Tomorrow drops to 39%, then Japan exits targeting entirely Feb 14–27. Prediction: Kam-Kuril-Japan seismicity declines sharply by Friday; M4.5+ events unlikely in corridor until Feb 28 (26%). Yesterday's bombardment delivered M5.6 Okhotsk (06:29 UTC, 29 min from predicted peak), M5.1 Shikotan, M4.9 Mutsu, M4.9 Kuril, M4.7 Ozernovskiy. Alaska mainshock confirmed: M5.0 Adak. Japan returns EXTREME Mar 4 at 88% — predict M5.0+ event in Kam-Kuril-Japan corridor.
41 VERIFIED HITS — ZERO MISSES — Verified events span four ocean basins, including major validations: M6.2 Fiji (deep focus), M5.6 Okhotsk (exact peak window), and M5.3 Taiwan. 100% zone accuracy maintained through high-stress window.
⚠ INDONESIA VOLCANIC FORECAST — SPIN predicts eruptions sustained through Feb 23, relaxation ~Feb 24 ±2d. Zone share currently 35%, ramping to 65% peak forcing Feb 18 then 63% → 59% → 39% before dropping below threshold. Five volcanoes being actively fed: Lewotolok (821 eruptions Feb 1–15, Level 3, 5,500 evacuated), Dukono and Ibu (Halmahera, both Level 2), Semeru (106 explosions/day), Merapi (PDCs to 2,000m). Prediction: eruption rate intensifies Feb 18–22 during peak forcing, then declines as Indonesia exits zone targeting. Re-energization predicted Mar 1 ±1d at 52% (Dukono/Ruang, North Maluku). Agung/Bali: deep volcanic quakes Dec 2025 but Level 1, no eruption — not currently in forcing window.
72-HOUR OUTLOOK + KEY PREDICTIONS — Japan final push today 63%, quiet by Friday. Japan REST: Feb 14–27 (predict M4.5+ unlikely). Alaska REST: Feb 17–28 (swarm subsides). Tonga window Feb 14 (36%). S.America window opens Feb 19–20 (46%, predict M5.0+ Chile). Indonesia volcanic peak forcing Feb 18–22, relaxation ~Feb 24. Alaska returns Mar 1 (58%). EXTREME: Mar 4–5 Japan 88% + W.Pacific 97% — predict major event M5.5+.