Published forecast vs observed, day by day. Published side is frozen before each window opens (delivery_windows_v1.json, deployed in advance). Observed side is computed live from the USGS catalog at each corridor's frozen floor against its own 2000–2025 clean-era energy distribution. Future days show the published side only — this table is the standing pre-registration record. Scoring unit is the ANTIPODAL AXIS — paired ends credited, as forecast (ALSK–CHILE · CASC–INDO · KAM–SCOTIA · JPN–MIDAM): a day’s HIT ⚑ = either end of a named axis closing at or above its p90.
SCHEDULEloading…
Scoring notes · Energy per event E = 10^(1.5M+4.8) J, summed per corridor per UTC day over events at or above the corridor's frozen floor (Cascadia M2.9 · Alaska M4.0 · Japan M4.7 · Indonesia M4.6 · others M4.5). Percentile = log-interpolated rank of that day's energy within the corridor's own 2000–2025 clean-era daily distribution. Axis rule: naming one end of an axis credits both ends — delivery routes to whichever end is ready (expression-site principle). QUIET rows are observation-only days: nothing was forecast, and their observed percentiles serve as the control arm — a fair instrument must score low on the days it declined to name. In-progress UTC days are shown but excluded from rollups until close. Raw events CSV carries millisecond timestamps for sub-day timing research; any timing adjustment explored offline applies only to future, pre-registered windows, never retroactively.