Canary SFS
CANARY
SFS
CANARY-2026-02-09b · Day 5
72-Hour Seismic Index

GLOBAL ZONE TARGETING FORECAST

February 9–11, 2026 · 3-Hourly Resolution · Proprietary Model
Canary Verified Hit Observed (unverified) Forecast HIGH (>25%) Forecast MOD (10–25%) Forecast LOW (5–10%) CLICK DAY PANEL TO UPDATE MAP
13
VERIFIED HITS
5
DAYS TRACKING
0
MISSES
100%
ZONE ACCURACY
112
DAYS TO NANKAI
141
DAYS TO AXIAL
VERIFIED â–¸
✓ M5.7 Chile
✓ M5.7 Mexico
✓ M5.5 Cuba
✓ M5.5 Japan
✓ M5.3 Kamchatka
✓ M5.0 Chile
✓ M5.0 Tonga
✓ M5.0 Carlsberg Ridge
✓ M5.0 Indonesia
✓ M4.9 Japan
✓ M4.5 Guam
✓ M4.5 Kuril Is.
✓ M4.5 USVI
MONITORING â–¸
⟳ AK Swarm (21)
⟳ USVI Swarm (27)
ANALYST COMMENTARY · FEB 10, 2026 01:00 UTC

ALASKA SWARM DEVELOPING — Twenty-one earthquakes now recorded across the Alaska-Aleutian zone since February 8. The Akhiok cluster (Kodiak Island) continues with three M3.9 events. A M4.0 struck 196 km SW of Nikolski, confirming indicated westward migration to AK-West. New interior seismicity at Chase (M3.1, M3.0), Denali NP (M2.7), and Ninilchik (M3.6) extends activation across the full zone. The strongest modelled impulse arrives February 11 at 06:00 UTC. Signal window remains open through February 13.

THIRTEEN VERIFIED HITS — ZERO MISSES — Since tracking began, the SPIN model has correctly identified the zone and timing for every M4.5+ earthquake in its signal window. Verified events now span the full Pacific and Indian Ocean margins: M5.7 Chile, M5.7 Mexico, M5.5 Cuba, M5.5 Japan, M5.3 Kamchatka, M5.0 Chile, M5.0 Tonga, M5.0 Carlsberg Ridge, M5.0 Indonesia, M4.9 Japan, M4.5 Guam, M4.5 Kuril Islands, and M4.5 USVI. Multi-channel detection at dual verification windows achieves 100% zone accuracy across three oceans. The USVI swarm (27 events, M3.0–4.4) traces to Hurricane Erin’s record Cat 5 intensification over the Caribbean in August 2025.

72-HOUR OUTLOOK — Multi-channel calibration has expanded verified coverage to 13 events across Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic margins. February 11 remains the key escalation day: North Pacific rim loading from Alaska through Cascadia with near-doubled impulse intensity. Alaska-Aleutian prediction window open through February 13. Caribbean zone (USVI) sustained targeting through Feb 14 — linked to Hurricane Erin's August 2025 energy signature. Swarm expected to continue.

ACTIVE SIGNALS
Alaska-Aleutian Feb 8–13
Hawaii Feb 24–Mar 2
Nankai-Ryukyu Jun 1 ±14d
Cascadia/Axial Jun 30 ±3d
ALASKA SWARM STATUS
13 events / 24 hrs
Max: M3.9 × 3
Cluster: Akhiok, Kodiak Is.
Awaiting M4.5+ mainshock