30-DAY ALASKA TARGETING
Primary axis zone share (%) · Feb 1 – Mar 7
SUBZONE BREAKDOWN
For peak days only
CANARY
SFS
CANARY-AK-2026-02-09
Updated Feb 9, 2026 03:00 UTC
| TIME (UTC) | MAG | DEPTH | LOCATION |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9 14:31 | M3.6 | 93.9 km | 32 km NW of Ninilchik |
| Feb 9 07:40 | M3.1 | 0.4 km | 27 km NE of Chase |
| Feb 9 07:39 | M3.0 | 0.3 km | 29 km NE of Chase |
| Feb 9 07:42 | M2.7 | 5.0 km | 44 km SSE of Denali NP |
| ▼ AK-WEST: NIKOLSKI M4.0 | |||
| Feb 9 05:37 | M4.0 | 24.0 km | 196 km SW of Nikolski |
| ▼ AKHIOK CLUSTER (continuing) | |||
| Feb 9 02:28 | M3.3 | 33.5 km | 67 km WSW of Akhiok |
| Feb 9 02:24 | M3.2 | 25.1 km | 107 km SE of Akhiok |
| Feb 9 02:17 | M3.9 | 5.0 km | 116 km SSE of Akhiok |
| Feb 8 23:55 | M2.9 | 5.0 km | 132 km SSE of Akhiok |
| Feb 8 20:47 | M3.4 | 6.0 km | 121 km SSE of Akhiok |
| Feb 8 20:45 | M3.9 | 7.9 km | 120 km SSE of Akhiok |
| Feb 8 20:37 | M3.9 | 10.5 km | 122 km SSE of Akhiok |
| Feb 8 20:36 | M3.8 | 7.2 km | 120 km SSE of Akhiok |
| Feb 8 15:20 | M3.0 | 5.0 km | 135 km SSE of Akhiok |
SWARM DEVELOPING
The Alaska-Aleutian zone continues to activate across multiple segments. The Akhiok cluster (Kodiak Island) now totals 12 events with three M3.9. A significant M4.0 struck 196 km SW of Nikolski in the western Aleutians — confirming the model's indicated westward migration of activity. New interior seismicity at Chase (M3.1, M3.0) and near Denali National Park (M2.7) adds depth to the regional activation. A M3.6 at Ninilchik on the Kenai Peninsula extends the active zone northeastward.
FORECAST OUTLOOK
The system identifies six days of elevated Alaska targeting in February: Feb 8 (46.9%), Feb 9 (30.2%), Feb 12 (41.6%), Feb 16 (19.2%), Feb 24 (62.7%), and Feb 28 (20.1%). Current prediction window runs through Feb 13 for M4.5+ events. A secondary targeting peak arrives Feb 11-12 via the secondary axis, followed by the strongest Alaska targeting of the month on Feb 24 at 62.7% — the dominant zone globally that day.
SUBZONE MIGRATION
The M4.0 at Nikolski confirms the model's indicated westward migration: Feb 8 concentrated on AK-Central (42.8%), and now the western Aleutians are activating. Feb 12 targeting shifts further to AK-West (36.0%), and Feb 24 loads AK-West at 58.5% — the strongest Alaska targeting of the month. Simultaneously, a 27-event earthquake swarm erupted in the U.S. Virgin Islands today (M2.9-M4.4), which the model links to sustained Caribbean zone energy detected within the 30-day signal window. The USVI zone shows 56.2% targeting on Feb 14, suggesting the Caribbean swarm may intensify.